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Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner's Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation (Global Financial Markets)
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Review
PRAISE FOR Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy 'A valuable resource for investment professionals trying to separate the economic wheat from the chaff. Underneath the noise and day-to-day market volatility there are systematic forces shaping the trends in asset values. This book explains the role macroeconomic factors play in this process.' - Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University, USA and bestselling author of Crisis Economic 'Six years after the crisis and it is time to ask what it all means. McGee puts the crisis into perspective for investors with a clear road map to macroeconomics. He makes the complicated post-crisis world less frightening by showing how it relates to macroeconomic and financial principles.' - Paul Wachtel, Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business New York University, USA 'Finally a book that connects the academic insights of macroeconomics with the real world performance of financial markets. This book should be read by anyone with a stake in understanding the economy and financial markets from students to new financial professionals and veteran investment managers. Few people read the economic tea leaves better than McGee. This book shows how he does it.' - Ed Hyman, Chairman of Evercore ISI, Founder of ISI and Head of Economic Research Team 'This bold and lucid book provides a welcome antidote to fashionable cynicism claiming that stock market movements have become irrational, and economic policies incomprehensible. McGee offers a clear and practical explanation of the fundamental forces driving financial markets and cuts through the cacophony of talking heads who cannot distinguish the random noise of market hysteria from the valuable investment signals provided by serious analysis of business cycles, monetary policies and structural change in the economy. For anyone with substantial assets invested in financial markets, this book could be literally worth its weight in gold.' - Anatole Kaletsky, Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics and Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking
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About the Author
Tim McGee (New York, NY) is Director of Macro Strategy & Research at US Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management, where he serves on the Investment Strategy Committee. Prior to this role he was a Chief Economist with the company. In this capacity he manages a team that researches global economic trends and turns them into strategies for investment professionals and high net worth clients.
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Product details
Series: Global Financial Markets
Paperback: 272 pages
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan; 1st ed. 2015 edition (May 26, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1349491438
ISBN-13: 978-1349491438
Product Dimensions:
6.1 x 0.6 x 9.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 15.5 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.8 out of 5 stars
12 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#140,285 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The headline to this review may be deemed irrelevant since the author states right off the bat that this is a book oriented to asset management professionals or soon-to-be ones. However, I thought it could be helpful to any individual investor who ended up here.By “not critical†I don’t mean useless. On the contrary, I think it is very educational. The problem is that I don’t think applied financial macroeconomics consists of an investing approach in itself. It is definitely a very strong complement. But nothing more than that. Being time and resource constrained, individual investors need to be very efficient in the way they plow through information and make decisions. They don’t care if the investment philosophy sounds appealing, they just need it to work and be easy to implement. And it’s for that reason that this is not a critical book for them.The author’s thesis is based on the idea that the business cycle is a critical factor explaining major fluctuations in the different asset classes (equity, bonds, and commodities). This is true in the sense that, every time there has been a recession or depression, there has also been a major correction (or a straight up crash) in the stock market. The problem is that those are not the only times when the stock market has suffered major corrections. The popular saying “the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions†implies that there are almost twice as many stock market cycles than business cycles (please, don't take this literally). And remember, you’re trading the stock market, not the real economy. I don’t think any investor found any comfort in the fact that the real economy was not in a recession in 1987 after Black Monday. Even the author himself shows how since 1945 the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the business cycle has decreased considerably. In particular, there have only been 5 recessions in the last 40 years. That’s an average of 1 recession every 8 years. In fact, the average has been more like 1 recession every 12 years since the beginning of the secular bull maker that started in the early 80’s. That might be just too infrequent to be used as the foundation for an investment strategy.Another problem with the business cycle approach is that it uses old data. Although there are some leading indicators around, in general all these macroeconomic data is about the past. And, as we know, the stock market is a forward looking mechanism. So, if you have to wait for the macro data, you will more often than not be late to the party.In general, I think there are much easier and efficient ways to play the market cycles. That starts with focusing on the actual tradeable cycles (those of the asset classes) instead of on the ones underlying the real economy.Now, there are two major positive aspects about this book. First, it is very original. There are not too many books on this topic. In fact, I only know of one (Expected Returns by Ilmanen), and that actually has a more academic bias. Second, it approaches the analysis of macroeconomic events using the right methodology. That is, it avoids the rigidity of mathematical models from academia to favor an approach based on history, concepts, and common sense. That is not a minor point. In fact, it is huge one. The reason why this is a very educational read beyond its practical implementation.
This is simply the best book I have found when it comes to connecting the macroeconomic cycle with investing. Will be too advanced for novice investors, but if you manage money then you need this book on your shelf. Simply awesome.
As others have said, this is perhaps the best investing book I have ever read. Everything before this seems trivial and like noise. The author provides simple but seemingly accurate (backed by historical correlations and research) explanations for what happens, why, and what one can anticipate in this conditions. This is a no-kidding ‘how-to’ macro invest book.
The book is an excellent overview of the drivers of many different asset classes over the past 30-60 years. It is a nice overview, but as one would expect, it is hard to impossible to get into tremendous depth for every asset class in just 250 pages. I specialize in equities and I found a lot of that section quite remedial. However, if you are not an equities professional, you may find it provides a reasonable amount of data. While some sections were lacking on a lot of actionable insight, I found the whole book quite worth my time, as I think that it gives some good long term perspective behind the performance of various asset classes since 1970, while also giving some solid insight into where we stand in the current cycle.
As a layman, I found this to be an excellent read and basis to avoid the simple "buy and hold". It would have been nice to have had a more"balanced" portfolio in my youth during 2000-2001 and 2008. Ignorance was not bliss at that time ;-)Having no formal education in economics (though some grad level stat classes), I was able to still glean significant and relevant information.
well summarized and very smarti wish many people read this book.but it was needed some technical treatment of economic indicators.
This great book was passed around here at MarketCycle. It was written by someone that clearly knows their way around financial markets and market cycles in particular. It is mainly geared toward professional investors and money managers that already have some experience. I do not know the author (Robert McGee). If you manage money professionally, my advice is to buy the book and then read it twice.
I call it the Macroeconomic Investment Strategy Bible. Enough said, but this book is my backbone and foundation of operating as a high-net-worth Portfolio Manager.
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